美国CPI数据关注点及逻辑

Created: 15 Jul 2024

Author: Chen Xie

摘要

影响资产
- 高于预期，美国经济强->加息预期->美元强(涨），黄金及其他货币跌；美股及全球股市跌。
- 低于预期，美国经济弱->降息预期->美元弱(跌），黄金及其他货币涨；美股及全球股市涨。
关注点及记录

20250116：公布前，可赌不及预期，买入美股指数；目前可能和美国非农唱反调，支持降息预期。
逻辑
- 基本逻辑：
  
  低于预期->降息预期->股价涨、债券涨
  高于预期->加息预期->股价跌、债券跌
- 逻辑更新
  
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参考链接
- - 20250116
    - CPI重燃美联储降息预期，纳指结束五连跌，特斯拉大涨超8%，纳指100ETF(159660)涨超2%，连续4日“吸金”，最新份额创近1年新高！
关键节点
- 2025
  - January 15, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
  - February 12, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
  - March 12, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
  - April 10, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
  - May 13, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
  - June 11, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
  - July 15, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
  - August 12, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
  - September 11, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
  - October 15, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
  - November 13, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
  - December 10, 2025 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.

20250116：公布前，可赌不及预期，买入美股指数；目前可能和美国非农唱反调，支持降息预期。

20240711：CPI低于预期，但是美股、美债双大跌？

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